Tea Leaves
Nine cups of strong parlour tea, drunk to the dregs and turned on their saucers. Pick three and see what the leaves did on the way down. They were only falling, mind you, not plotting.
The tea tray
Pour a pot to begin.
One pot costs 15 coins and lets you pick 3 cups.
Your coins: –
Pour a pot, then choose three cups.
How to play
- Pour a pot for 15 coins. Nine cups are filled and shuffled at random.
- Each cup hides one leaf shape. Every pot holds the same nine shapes listed below, just in a different order.
- Choose three cups. After your third choice all nine are turned over, and the shapes in your three are added together.
- Which cups you pick makes no difference to your chances: the shuffle has already happened, and the leaves keep no secrets worth knowing.
The nine shapes in every pot
- Plain dregs × 3 – nothing
- A sprig – 2 coins
- A ladder – 4 coins
- An owl – 6 coins
- A horseshoe – 8 coins
- An anchor – 10 coins
- A comet – 12 coins
How it pays
There are 84 equally likely sets of three cups. Here is every possible total, against your stake of 15 coins.
| Coins returned | Ways (of 84) | Chance | Against the stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1.19% | loss of 15 |
| 2 | 3 | 3.57% | loss of 13 |
| 4 | 3 | 3.57% | loss of 11 |
| 6 | 6 | 7.14% | loss of 9 |
| 8 | 6 | 7.14% | loss of 7 |
| 10 | 9 | 10.71% | loss of 5 |
| 12 | 10 | 11.90% | loss of 3 |
| 14 | 10 | 11.90% | loss of 1 |
| 16 | 8 | 9.52% | gain of 1 |
| 18 | 9 | 10.71% | gain of 3 |
| 20 | 6 | 7.14% | gain of 5 |
| 22 | 6 | 7.14% | gain of 7 |
| 24 | 3 | 3.57% | gain of 9 |
| 26 | 2 | 2.38% | gain of 11 |
| 28 | 1 | 1.19% | gain of 13 |
| 30 | 1 | 1.19% | gain of 15 |
On average three cups hold 14 coins, which is 93.33% of the 15-coin stake. You come out ahead in 36 of the 84 combinations (42.9%).